According to an analysis firm Oxford Economics, robots could replace up to 20 million jobs in manufacturing around the globe by 2030. People displaced from these jobs will likely find similar roles in the service sector that have been cut by automation.
Robots are on the rise.
According to the Oxford Economics report, each new industrial robot eliminates 1.6 manufacturing jobs. The most affected regions are the less skilled.
Regions with lower levels of skills are more susceptible to losing their jobs to robots. As a result, these regions tend to have weaker economies and higher unemployment rates.
Workers who leave manufacturing tend to find new jobs in transportation, construction, maintenance, office, and administration, which are all vulnerable to automation.
According to Oxford Economics, every other robot installed in lower-skilled areas could result in nearly twice the job losses than those in higher-skilled parts of the country. Oxford Economics stated that this would increase economic inequality and political polarisation, which is already growing.
*Oxford Economics, https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/how-robots-change-the-world
There have been many predictions that robots will make everyone redundant, like welders, builders, packers, waiters, bartenders, and white-collar jobs like office employees, accountants, lawyers, sales managers, teachers, journalists included suddenly more susceptible to automation.
This report, however, presents a more nuanced perspective. First, it emphasizes that automation's productivity benefits should increase growth. That is, as many jobs will be created as they are lost.
Robots are moving to become the service industries now. However, of course, they will make the most significant impact in manufacturing, especially in China, where machines could replace many workers. The USA is still far behind this trend.
Service jobs are more at risk in areas like transport and construction than in journalism or law. It's lower-skilled workers who might have left manufacturing that is most vulnerable.
Governments face the challenge of encouraging the robotic revolution while ensuring that they don't create new divisions.
Oxford Economics found that the more repetitive a job is, the higher the chance of it being replaced by a robot.
It said that jobs that require compassion, creativity, or social intelligence are more likely to keep "for decades to follow."
The report urged policymakers, workers, teachers, and business leaders to consider improving their workforce skills to adapt to increasing automation.
It stated that robots have already displaced 1.7 million manufacturing jobs since 2000. This includes 400,000 in Europe, 260,000 in America, and 550,000 in China.
According to the firm, China will have the highest level of manufacturing automation with up to 14 million industrial robots in 2030.
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It was estimated that there could be hundreds of thousands of job opportunities in the UK.
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It is estimated that a 30% increase in robot installation worldwide would result in $5 trillion more global GDP.
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It stated that jobs would be created worldwide at the same rate as they are destroyed.